Forecasting of Texas Congress District mid-terms by PhD candidate

A Texas Experiment in Social Media Election Forecasts: The 2018 Texas house races

Roberto Cerina and Ray Duch
Nuffield College, University of Oxford

Can digital trace replace random-digit-dialing? As part of the My Digital Vote project, we follow the digital trace of Texas Facebook users to predict the outcome of Texas congressional district elections. Our predicted district-level vote share, that relies on zero polling data input, generate essentially the same results as the aggregated conventional polling data.

Read more about the project following this link.